10. The Next Billion-Dollar Merge Games
Discussion, trends and predictions for Merge Games genre / market and what next billion-dollar merge games could have in them
Merge games segment on mobile has seen interesting takes in past couple years, from Merge Mansion originally boasting the genre up — with Travel Town and Gossip Harbor raising their heads up as followers, who managed to raise to the genre’s top.
This article focuses on looking beyond what is currently out there, with giving some trends and predictions for the near and longer future, in terms of what type of merge games we would be seeing (hopefully) — and, discussing, why these introduced topics could make sense for the genre.
Note: This article has data from AppMagic; Merge Games segment.
Innovation Meets Depth
Merge games have proven their staying power with Travel Town and Gossip Harbor blending solid grid management with narrative-driven building layers (in terms of grid management and how it boasts from engagement to economy and monetization, Travel Town has done slightly better — but who knows, maybe Gossip Harbor and its live strategy will take over; as in October and November 2024 it has been going beyond Travel Town, at least according to AppMagic). Merge Dragons hold still most IAP revenue, but over time some of the current high-performers will go over it.
Merge Games, Global Top 100 Revenue (Source: AppMagic).
Merge Games, Global Top 100 Downloads (Source: AppMagic).
In terms of the future, according to my predictions, next hits could emerge by leveraging key vectors in games design and systems design that are theme-independent, appealing to female, male, and mixed audiences:
Simulation and Tycoon Mechanics
Imagine SimCity, Railroad Tycoon, or RollerCoaster Tycoon fused with merge games gameplay and meta. Adding tycoon-like depth could revolutionize Merge, offering strategic, long-term engagement.
Examples:
Travel Town’s city-building layer could expand into dynamic economies, where merging fuels resource generation and upgrades.
Ability to draw in players seeking meaningful, management-driven progression, boosting retention and LTV; and/or teaching this to existing players.
Basically why this could work lies within the economy design, where merge and simulation and tycoon games on a paper are excel games about e.g., item production. When item production in this sense gets mentioned, in merge games it happens mainly by merging items to upgrade, and sell, them — whilst on simulation and tycoon games item production and upgrades happen through e.g., factories.
And, given this is close to similar on a paper / spreadsheet, it could be natural to mix these genres together — which would allow more strategies for engagement building, monetization and UA (in terms of having more variation for Creatives / Ads and messages, just as an example). With this, there could be possibilities to also solve grid management issues on ‘camp merge’ types of games, when you could just add a new area to be build one after another, after one is (or more are) ‘automated’ through e.g., idle mechanics / worker mechanics — which would ensure players wouldn’t need to spend their time on managing their grids and objects on it, which pretty much leaves cash on the table in some games at the end-game experience.
In terms of audience profiling, you could offer car-building tycoon or fantasy themes for males — as well as anything from luxury themes for female audiences. For mixed theme park and city builders could, to some extent, (depending on execution and how the experience would be tailored), work well.
Life Sims
Games like BitLife, Business Empire: RichMan, and Pick Me Up - Idle inspire the potential synergy between life sims and merge, as well as The Sims.
Examples:
Imagine merging through a character’s life — managing careers, relationships, and possessions.
This emotional engagement could drive monetization, with micro transactions tied to life events or choices.
A “merge your way to success” mechanic would unlock new creative gameplay and meta game possibilities — as well as diversify monetization and UA methods.
Build life and manage neighborhood together in one gaming experience!
Why these would work? There’s, at least to my opinion, an interesting phenomena happening with the above-mentioned games, in terms of how much popularity they’ve gained as well as managed to generate loads of revenue (BitLife in 8 figures). Yet, they are very simplistic products. I call them pseudogames or pseudo-like games.
Merge, integrated with pseudo-like gaming experience, would be quite well-fitting, as Merge games already put players in life-like fantasies. This is just one step further towards realistic take, whilst fantasy-level would be retained. And, overall, those pseudogames really, in my opinion, could be much more successful if there would be lots of depthful takes on them — which, in my opinion, merge would allow (on top of that there are many genres and market segments where they could fit, from hybrid casual and simulation types of takes to further).
Prestige and Ascension
Adding prestige systems and economic ascension mechanics could deliver replayability while rewarding long-term investment.
Examples:
Merge games could introduce "prestige" resets that unlock powerful bonuses and/or evolve gameplay.
Travel Town and Gossip Harbor could gain depth through narrative-driven rebuilding tied to prestige mechanics; and/or have this as side event / mini-game on a tie-in.
Where else these mechanisms could work? Anything that you can take from e.g., Best Fiends types of games to Puzzle-RPGs, definitely there. Also on certain types of fantasy game takes where e.g., above-mentioned simulation and tycoon mechanics would be mixed with merge gameplay and meta.
Merge Meets Social 2.0
I’m a big believer on social gameplay mechanics, meta and systems. Overall I think on merge games market social depth hasn’t been much yet cracked (well, I think this same applies pretty much to Match-3 — and, whilst some Puzzle-RPGs have managed to start deeper explorations here, I think even they could go deeper).
These approaches, anything from club mechanics to further collaborative events, and such, could also lead to group monetization opportunities or monetization being pushed by social mechanisms. It would open new depth for monetization as well in a tie-in to engagement built through social depth.
I’ve wrote about Social Mechanics in my past articles, where you can find more ideas and references towards what I’m referring to e.g., from here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/8-physiology-and-psychology-how-they):
Not Just Mobile — Cross-Platform Experiences Will Be Formed
In addition to being social believer, I think cross-platform experiences will be seen more in the future — especially if the current trend of web-based games continues to gain traction.
Cross-platform (or just web gaming), hopefully, also wouldn’t be just about playing the game on e.g., two devices — I’m actually hoping there will be more innovation to it, about which I’ve written more here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/the-future-of-web-games-beyond-what):
What Else There Could Be?
In a short list format, there could be also innovative takes on:
🔹 Deeplinking — From mixing FTUE experiences with payload triggering different configs / FTUEs
🔹 D2C — Will definitely raise its head.
I’ve written about D2C / Webshops here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/the-future-of-web-games-beyond-what):
🔹 Hybrid Casual mixing — From mixing FTUE references to game and meta interconnections to full hybrid casualized takes for merge.
Examples / references for above:
🔹 Equity Building — In addition to narrative-driven entertainment, players would be building economic equity in the game, which would enable them being even more engaged and immersed to these experiences.
🔹 Intrinsic Strategies — If you would crack your economic equity and any further things right, players could perceive game more as a hobby instead of purely as an entertainment and escapism product; which would, furthermore, allow more intrinsic led strategies for engagement as well as monetization.
Side Note: I discuss intrinsic strategies, for inspiration, more on these articles:
Why These Vectors Matter
These innovations elevate product and live-ops KPIs like retention and monetization while transforming distribution strategies:
🔹 UA Creative Opportunities: New mechanics open creatives and messaging means that e.g., appeal across demographics as well as allow everyone to explore different types of Creatives / Ads types in their campaigns, which attract different audiences to play these games.
🔹 Engagement at All Fronts: You’ve, like I have, seen probably how 4X games have taken references from hybrid casual games where, similarly, I think merge games could be taking cross-genre and feature approaches into their games from FTUE / onboarding onward towards e.g., moving the game being over time more like idle / automated experience (e.g., on simulation and tycoon you could move the experience being about managing an empire where you could hire workers).
🔹 Deeper LTV: Simulation, life sim, prestige layers, social mechanics, etc. extend player engagement — and, definitely (when executed right), spending.
🔹 Competitive Positioning: In short, many of above-mentioned points and suggestions are blue oceans, when your game and distribution strategies would be tailored well. You would also, on top of unique positioning strategies, have lot of further USPs and value props. for the players in your games, which would help with UA, engagement and monetization over time.
Merge's Evolving Potential
If implemented well, these innovations could allow Merge to surpass even Match-3 in revenue per download.
Games like Travel Town and Gossip Harbor have shown how grid management and narrative depth succeed taking the genre further — and, adding systems like above ones could elevate the genre further. It would be fun in working on something like this, given the opportunity (I’m open for opportunities currently).
Merge games aren’t limited by themes or audiences. Whether targeting male, female, or combined demographics, these vectors can unlock long-term success by combining innovation with proven systems. And, definitely, they can unlock theme and game type choices for different audience-tailoring strategies, as/if wanted.
Will be exciting to see where we get from here! Definitely hope developers and publishers would be innovating here.