9. Mobile MMOs / MMORPGs: Innovation Opportunities in 2025 and Beyond
Discussion, predictions and trends for MMO / MMORPG F2P Mobile Games market for 2025 and beyond
The mobile MMO / MMORPG genre remains an interesting frontier, offering opportunities for creative disruption.
This article discusses in about mobile MMO / MMORPG market(s) and gives trends and predictions for it for 2025 and beyond.
Note: This article has data from AppMagic; MMORPG segment (some games from APRG could be classified as MMOs, and revenue doesn't count D2C in).
Current State of MMO / MMORPG
Global Revenue and Downloads
Mobile MMOs, Top 100 Global Revenue (Source: AppMagic).
Mobile MMOs, Top 100 Global Downloads (Source: AppMagic).
Global downloads have been able to be sustained in similar manner, while in-store global revenue has been declining a bit — which most likely is due to D2C / Webshops (more below about D2C / Webshops) taking chunk of revenue. Big chunk of revenue comes from Asian markets and games.
Overall the market has been led by the games that have been there for a long time, as most new entries we saw to top 100 were mostly happening in 2023 (whilst, though, currently AppMagic shows that there’s a new entry to the top 100 after that point in September 2024).
Tier 1 West Revenue and Downloads
Mobile MMOs, Top 100 Tier 1 West Revenue (Source: AppMagic).
Mobile MMOs, Top 100 Tier 1 West Downloads (Source: AppMagic).
In comparison to Global markets, where Asian markets eat a big chunk of revenue, four new entries seems to be made to the top 100 in 2024, incl. titles I’m seeing advertised on Meta / Facebook a lot, e.g., Flame of Valhalla. Revenue and downloads seems to be more steady here.
Opportunities within Mobile MMO / MMORPG Market(s)
While high barriers to entry deter newcomers (1-4 new entries in 2024 to Top 100), the potential for innovation — and rewards — makes it a ripe area for exploration.
I’m a strong believer that specifically in the West, there would be lots of opportunities for new entries — more on that below, where my answers to this lies in the below points!
Trends to Look in Mobile MMOs:
Lapsed and Underserved Audiences
Western gamers who grew up on MMOs like World of Warcraft now face 'constraints' by life. Mobile MMOs designed for short, flexible, yet meaningful, play could attract these players, offering them nostalgic experiences in an accessible format.
For example, creating systems where players feel empowered without excessive grinding, such as streamlined progression mechanics inspired by lighter ARPGs, would be worth to be studied. Jumping in and out for raiding different locations players have discovered, and finding solutions for that, would enable session-flexibility, which furthermore would enable life-fitting habits for playing these games. Additionally, instead of pushing these to full open world settings, MMOs could be mixed with open and non-open design — making them light while retaining key elements — meaning in practice you would see other players in towns, pathways, and other designed areas.
There are lots of solutions to these, which I’ve been figuring out (incl. with great past co-workers and current industry friends) in my past projects — as well as after those.
Eastern Market vs. Western Market
MMOs flourish in Asian markets, where habits are around long sessions and intricate systems.
Western markets present untapped potential, particularly if games address preferences for accessible depth and life-friendly designs. Some of this got already covered, so no need to repeat.
Beyond these, I think if you’re really looking to market and competitive intelligence positioning approaches, West lacks really, and truly, co-op -first / social-first experiences (from systems design point of view where class-based synergies, etc. are seen less that DPS approaches) for the players. MO.CO by Supercell aims to touch this area a bit with Supercell’s usual mass-appeal theses and takes, which will be intetesting to see where it goes — though, in my personal opinion (this is constructive take with good intentions), they need to make tough choices, a lot, over their systems’ and progression vectors’ depth vs. mass-appeal -first approach, which might leave some audiences like lapsed / underserved not being served fully; unless more drastic catering choices would be made for them (which could eat a part out of mass-appeal approach — it’s a balancing act sometimes — though I think there would be good solutions for trying to keep all pillars in; on top of which if you get more lapsed and time-poor players to play even lose some mass reach elements, it wouldn't probably be financially that bad still). Again, very excited to see where they go.
Resurgence of Cross-Genre Influence
The blending of MMO elements with other genres, like ARPG, casual games and/or hybrid casual, could offer paths to reach broader audiences while retaining core engagement mechanics.
For example, by incorporating simplified ARPG mechanics and systems — similar to e.g., Archero — developers could attract audiences who crave action and progression but lack the time for traditional MMOs' approaches. Additionally, hybrid casual approach could lower onboarding barriers and broaden the player base; offering potential for wider reach and mixed monetization and UA strategies. CPIs could be, maybe, assumed lower here than e.g., 7-20, or more, USD range.
Above points are obviously ‘sexy’ in terms of the current commercial mindset, top of the funnel approach, and how e.g., 4X strategy games have shown the direction here from FTUE overhauls onward to other tricks. Beyond this, and the commercial sentiment, I think there is space for attractiveness in the classical MMO format; inspired by games that we played 10-20 years ago already — as if you look into the markets carefully with right lenses on, there aren’t really much games following the recipe of classics in a format that would be fitting for modern play styles and audiences we're covering in this article here.
What else could be worthwhile looking into? I think emergent and systemic mechanisms and mechanics in MMOs / MMORPGs are underlooked and not understood how much fun and depth they could add to these games (I have also killer ideas for Tactical RPG Co-Op and PvP / PvPvE games, based on emergent and systemic mechanics, which would be complete blue ocean opportunities — and market would be quite well ready for such given what we have seen already in MMOs, MOBAs, Battle Royales and on different hero-based Shooters from Overwatch to Valve's new upcoming game). Also, when one would look into e.g., Roguelite references, there’s plenty of opportunities with using those mechanics as well as innovating over meta and core gameplay ideas such as ‘Roguelite Manipulators’, which are something I’ve built some theses over for checking how much sense they would be making.
The more you understand about macro positioning and connect-the-dots opportunities, the more you will see how much space there is for exploration.
Social Connection
Players are increasingly drawn to games that enable meaningful community interactions, whether through co-op gameplay or competitive systems. MMOs can make their bets purely on this, which would correlate well with certain audiences, Gen Z players and upcoming generations, who are looking for social experiences.
Social also, definitely, correlates with lapsed — and underserved audiences — deeply, as, because of this, MMO / MMORPG as a segment is as big as it’s now.
Interested more about social approach? Take a look here what I’ve written about Social 2.0 and physiology and psychology around it (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/8-physiology-and-psychology-how-they):
In terms of what I’ve written in the above article, which hopefully you’ll be reading, I think games like World of Warcraft have touched what social gameplay really is up to 25 % — and, that, there are lots of more solutions to these systems when you really know how you can tie physiology and psychology more in game design, systems design, social systems design, economy design, and monetization. Highly recommend reading the article above!
Note: In the light of above article, I could add more about group monetization, etc., here, which for MMOs / MMORPGs would open lots of depth on monetization front — but I will leave it for you to connect together from my articles on my Substack.
D2C / Webshops
As in other genres and games, MMOs are on the D2C front, which will help to generate better ROI.
This continues being a space where everyone continues to invest in.
Want to find more about D2C / Webshops and what trends I’ve predicted for them? Take a look into this article here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/4-d2c-webshops-in-mobile-games-the):
Some of the solutions presented on the above article would lead to interesting interconnections between D2C and MMORPGs. As D2C also leans on web, cross-platform MMORPGs where mobile would meet web, would be also interesting area for exploration. I have, actually, written already a bit what could be possible on this side — more about future of Web Games here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/the-future-of-web-games-beyond-what):
Note: In terms of above article, it would be very interesting to see cross-platform games on this segment — where cross-platform can help with UA / distribution onward things towards building different habits and routines for the player base over multiple devices / screens. It could be also very innovative to add layers on the web front like different types of character editors you don’t see on the mobile side, as well as more community layers where one could spend more time in theory-crafting. These are just few of things I’ve been exploring through lately in my mind regarding where the future could go.
Intrinsic and Group Monetization
P2W, player vs. victim (PvV), pay to progress, etc. are losing their momentum — and most likely will hurt your game, its economy and your business vs. when done right, you could build business for decades with right means and methods. Players also understand better where they are investing their efforts in.
According to Deconstructor of Fun and Sensor Tower, core games have lost their momentum due to “high monetization”, which is aligned with my take on P2W, PvV, and pay to progress. (Source: https://www.deconstructoroffun.com/blog/2025/1/7/2024-prediction-audit).
I believe, given above, that e.g., intrinsic-led and group monetization gathers importance and prioritization over time over old and current methods. When done right, you can create healthy games with long-tail and attract over time not just a niche but also large audience base.
In terms of intrinsic monetization, building game that is more like “investable hobby” would be one way to go, with granularity over long-term take vs. sticker shocking players completely. In terms of this, making monetization truly correlating with autonomy, competences and relatedness as your pillars, you would be making already a well-perceived and well-monetized game just by that.
Side Note: Interested about Intrinsic Strategies? Read my article about how you can use them for monetization here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/intrinsic-monetization-alternative):
In terms of group monetization itself, this is something I see (with Social 2.0 ideas I’ve written about in this article and on my article about use of Physiology and Psychology as well as D2C / Webshops) enabling lots of depth for MMOs — where players would most likely invest in their efforts, when systems over these things would be built right and with intrinsic methods.
It might sound scary to move on (purely ‘healthy’) long-term strategies this way, but it doesn’t mean overall you are losing any business here. You actually could build something industry-defining that others would be praising in the future. There is also a fine line in what is intrinsic and what is extrinsic, where understanding this allows monetizing some elements deeply and in similar to current ways (just fitted better with gameplay) through looking into e.g., competences and how that can drive things. Lots of good solutions already exists and can be build / iterated over these means.
When player journey is about the journey itself and exploration, as well as e.g., dungeon raiding, looting, etc. — with intrinsic means enabled — I have seen even on Alpha stage product (a game that I’ve been leading from Product side) players raiding only a couple dungeons (on e.g., 3 different modes from normal to heroic) for loot and talents, when their prestige and equity value are not taken away by economy and monetization design, for 200-300 hours, and possibly even more. This and many interesting phenomena will compound well when you build things correctly. Over time these types of players, as well as others, engage and monetize when given right opportunities for them in meaningful way.
Lots of these methods work for many types of games and genres, not just for MMORPGs — and I'm happy to discuss over them in other contexts.
Final Thoughts
The mobile MMO segment has untapped potential, particularly in the West, where life constraints demand innovative solutions.
With the right mix of e.g., nostalgia, accessibility, and engaging mechanics, the genre could see a wave of successful new entries in 2025 and beyond. I would be very excited to work on some of the above theses I’ve introduced (I’m open to work — so if you’re building something around MMO / MMORPG segment(s), or even on ARPG segment, I’m happy to discuss more).
What do you think? Are mobile MMOs ready to evolve? I think they are, and that there are lots of blue ocean opportunities within the segment (I’ve identified several in the past and started building one MMORPG already over some of them, during my past job; which proved out clearly correlating with audience in terms of low CPIs and good KPIs for early stages — on top of which I have many further theses built just in case great opportunities come for being able to take them further). It’s just about time when we see something really interesting there.