11. The Next Frontier in 4X: Pure Hybrid Casual 4X Games
Discussion, trends and predictions about how Hybrid Casual will slip more into 4X Strategy Games segment
The 4X Strategy Games genre, known for its complexity and depth, has long dominated the hardcore space, even after post-IDFA — but, how? Mostly, and very recently, thanks to hybrid casual elements slipping into 4X onboarding, first time user experience (FTUE), and UA strategies.
This article focuses on discussing about current and upcoming trends for 4X Strategy Games, with emphasis on Hybrid Casual elements slipping into the genre.
Note: This article has data from AppMagic; 4X Strategy segment.
Growth Trend for 4X Strategy Games
As mobile games continue to evolve due to e.g., post-IDFA effects, hybrid casual elements have been slipping into the 4X ecosystem — specifically to onboarding, FTUE, UA, and driving users to learn the 4X gameplay and systems around it through mini-game takes. Thanks to this the segment has been actually growing lately, instead of churning out (where it was heading before these innovations, as you can see from macro data).
4X Strategy games, Top 100 Revenue (Source: AppMagic).
4X Strategy games, Top 100 Downloads (Source: AppMagic).
Opportunities for Pure Hybrid Casual 4X Games
As hybrid casual elements have been successfully slipping to the segment, they will be continue in creating, potentially (this is still prediction paper — with good arguments), an actual opportunity for "Hybrid Casual 4X" games to emerge as a new growth segment more largely — and this is where we'll see a new wave of games in near future, having the evolution taken further.
Why Hybrid Casual will Meet 4X?
Low Entry Barrier
Traditional 4X games intimidate many types of audiences due to steep learning curves. Games that dominated the 4X segment starting from 10 years ago are facing critical challenges due to this and not modernizing their games UA and FTUE onward — and, now, due to not innovating earlier (note for readers, this is a constructive take), many of them are actually looking into how they can follow high-performers such as Last War, Whiteout Survival and e.g., Top War on the hybrid casual bandwagon, or how they can otherwise crack these things with inspiration from those titles. This is a real thing based on my knowledge from the segment and some discussions I've had.
By introducing hybrid casual mechanics — e.g., simplified core loops, clean UI, and mini-game -driven onboarding — many 4X Strategy games have become accessible while retaining depth. As this is proven, it's just about a time when new wave of games fully built around this will be released.
Diverse Monetization
Hybrid casual mechanics inherently blend ad-based monetization with IAPs. This dual-layered approach could open additional revenue streams to 4X games, which traditionally rely heavily on IAPs and whales. Diversified monetization, when done properly, would also allow diversifying UA campaign optimization based also on Ad revenue.
In terms of more diversifying monetization, these games could start also innovating more on something what I call Social 2.0. You can find more about it from this article here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/8-physiology-and-psychology-how-they):
Retention by Genre-Blending
Games like Last War, Puzzles & Survival and Top War have shown that blending 4X gameplay with casual games mechanics not only widens appeal but also increases KPIs. Players are drawn into a rewarding gameplay loop while being introduced to depth.
Market Expansion
Appeals to many audiences (or you can just onboard many types better with pure hybrid casual 4X take). Imagine a 4X game where players experience engaging tactical decisions combined with bite-sized hybrid casual loops, e.g., resource-gathering mini-games. This approach opens doors for untapped segments.
Opportunities for Innovation
🔹 Minigame-Driven Exploration: Replace traditional exploration mechanics with interactive hybrid casual challenges.
🔹 Simplified Progression: Streamline not just the early game but mid-to-late-game, while preserving deep endgame dynamics.
🔹 Social and Clan Features: Layer on hybrid casual social mechanics like asynchronous battles, club-based events, or light cooperative challenges, which are highly successful in driving engagement in other genres. These also correlate, again, with Social 2.0, as stated above (see article here: https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/8-physiology-and-psychology-how-they) — where on top of that note, it would be very interesting to use different proximity and related solutions in this genre for boosting social and co-op play.
🔹 Accessible Monetization: Hybrid casual approach makes monetization less intrusive and more rewarding, when done right. Additionally, just to again point readers to check more stuff from my Substack, because my articles are systemically connected most often, you can check again points and notes about Social 2.0 — and imagine from there how this could diversify monetization (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/8-physiology-and-psychology-how-they).
🔹 Cross-Platform with Web: 4X Strategy games have been long time already on the web, so I’d expect these types of games blending hybrid casual mechanics, and the ones purely focusing on hybrid casual experience, slip to web as well. In terms of Web, these titles could innovate beyond what we’ve seen — which is something I’ve written about here about the Future of Web Games (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/the-future-of-web-games-beyond-what):
🔹 D2C / Webshops: As already stated above, 4X Strategy games have been long time already on the web, so this isn’t anything new. Pure hybrid casual 4X titles will follow same trends — whilst potentially might be ripe for innovation on the D2C / Webshops front, which you can read more about it here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/4-d2c-webshops-in-mobile-games-the):
🔹 New Layer for UA Strategy: Totally new takes for UA strategies, where I'll leave it for readers’ imagination what this could mean from Ads / Creatives strategies to campaign optimizations to deeplinking possibilities. On top of these things like genre-blending bring totally different takes on these, e.g., Top Girl game is one that everyone should take a look into, in terms of how it transforms its whole funnel approach around an interesting genre-blending choice with 4X.
🔹 Intrinsic Strategies: Intrinsic strategies tickling the nerves of players around autonomy, competencies and relatedness can lead to new ways of thinking these games and this genre overall. It also would lead to e.g., new healthy and well-perceived monetization strategies — about which I’ve written more here (https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/intrinsic-monetization-alternative):
The Road Ahead and Genre-Blending
The success of hybrid casual elements in strategy games hints towards a new market transformation.
By blending the best of 4X and hybrid casual, developers can create games that not only cater to traditional strategy players but also capture the attention of more casual gamers, potentially driving new growth for the strategy genre as a whole.
The result? A new era of strategy gaming that is engaging, and ready for scale — and it's kind of there, and coming stronger (this is something I’ve actually heard rumors about some studios already building — so, guess, it’s just about time when we see these games coming out).
It would be interesting to be working over something like this (I’m open to work currently), or approach the genre through other means — e.g., purely from Social 2.0 approach, or so.
Social 2.0 could be changing the dynamics of many systems to more attractive and well-perceived over decades, whilst a great business case would be achieved through takes that are trying to avoid P2W, pay to progress, player vs. victim approaches. Additionally, as also mentioned above, think these games could benefit a lot from different proximity solutions on e.g., convoys and guild / alliance mechanisms. Moving closer to other players real life wouldn't be a must in these systems, as potentially virtual outposts could be made everyone become closer, as an option to sustain different play styles, throughout which some mechanisms would active faster through a drop of ‘magic’ or ‘alchemy’ in the in-game world. Idea here is basically to make players feel closer and collaborating through having that feeling created — whilst also give it as an option to actually go closer; even, though, this approach is not at all focusing on making location-based game experience. Why something like this? Read the article (here’s link for it also: https://gamesalchemy.substack.com/p/8-physiology-and-psychology-how-they) I'm referencing to get some inspiration.
What else there could be beyond above-mentioned points and where this article is focusing? Genre-blending between others and 4X — from RPG to many others. One of the examples, a bit extraordinary as well, here is Top Girl game blending 4X strategy with Idol management, which has gained some industry analysts’ attention a bit. Not sure how long it will take, as it looks a bit niche, but overall it might spark inspiration for more variations on the 4X Strategy throughout giving inspiration what can be achieved.